Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares on Tuesday in low volume, with many participants away on Christmas holiday.

The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 84.965 yen early on Tuesday in Asia, as Japanese markets caught up with global investors who had reacted overnight to incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's weekend comments that raised the pressure on the Bank of Japan.

During a meeting on Tuesday with officials from Japan's major business lobby, Keidanren, Abe reiterated calls on the BOJ to conduct bold monetary easing to beat deflation by setting an inflation target of 2 percent.

The head of Abe's coalition partner said on Tuesday the coalition party and Abe had agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target and compile a large stimulus budget to help the economy return to growth and overcome deflation.

The yen has come under pressure as a result of expectations that the BOJ will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year.

The dollar was expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The dollar is seen relatively well bid, with all focus on the fiscal cliff," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"Negotiations may be carried over the weekend, but markets still expect a deal to be struck by December 31. It is unthinkable that the U.S. will risk driving its economic growth sharply lower by not agreeing to avoid it."

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> resumed trading after a three-day weekend with a 1.1 percent gain, recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday after Boehner's failure sparked a broad market sell-off and the Tokyo benchmark closed down 1 percent. The Nikkei was likely to be supported as long as the yen stayed weak. <.t/>

"Ongoing optimism about the weak yen is lifting hopes that exporters' earnings will be better than expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Analysts say a near-term correction may be possible as the index is now in "overbought" territory after gaining 16.2 percent over the last six weeks, hitting a nine-month high last Friday. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 72.34, above the 70 level that signals an overbought condition.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.1 percent, driven higher by surging Shanghai shares, as most Asian bourses were shut for Christmas.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.ssec> soared over 2 percent to five-month highs as investors bought property stocks on mounting optimism about the sector. Taiwan shares <.twii> jumped 1.3 percent on gains in technology and financial shares.

Asset performance in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/muc46s

2012 commodities returns: http://link.reuters.com/faz36s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

U.S. HOLDS 2013 KEY

Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp, said investors were likely to focus on economic fundamentals and the United States for cues on investment direction in 2013.

"There is a feeling that an investment strategy based on economic fundamentals may finally work next year, with asset prices more closely reflecting fair value. The problem is, we don't know yet which asset is a better bet than others," Ohwada said, adding that oil and gold appeared to be near their highs.

Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory, said commodities and energy prices will likely move in tight ranges in 2013, with investors eyeing political events, including the U.S. fiscal cliff outlook, Italian parliamentary election set for February 24-25, and Germany's elections in September.

"The macroeconomic policies taken this year around the world to support growth are expected to result in a moderate recovery in 2013 to reduce an excessive downside risk to prices. This will likely keep commodities, gold and energy prices near their highs," Niimura said.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Daniel Magnowski)

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U.S. Civilian Is Killed at Police Headquarters in Kabul

KABUL, Afghanistan — A woman identified as a police officer shot and killed an American civilian adviser at police headquarters in Kabul on Monday, Afghan police officials said, breaking a relative lull in the so-called insider killings that have strained the relationship between Americans and Afghans here.

Shah Marai/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Afghan policemen at the site where a female police officer reportedly shot and killed an American civilian adviser on Monday.

A spokesman for the American-led NATO force in Afghanistan, Col. Thomas W. Collins, confirmed that the attack had taken place but said that the victim’s name was being withheld according to military policy. He described the attacker as “a suspected member of the Afghan uniformed police” and said the suspect was in Afghan custody.

Insider attacks, in which members of the Afghan security services have turned against their foreign allies, have greatly increased in the past year, with 61 American and other coalition members killed, not including the episode on Monday, compared with 35 deaths the previous year, according to NATO figures.

Monday’s attack — the first insider attack known to be committed by a woman — came after a lull in insider shootings after the military instituted a series of precautions meant to reduce them. The most recent episode was on Nov. 11, when a British soldier was killed in Helmand Province.

A person at Kabul police headquarters, where the shooting occurred at about 10 a.m., said the suspect, a woman named Nargis, was a police officer who had been detached to work in the Interior Ministry’s legal and gender equality department. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release information, said the attacker had used a pistol and had shot the adviser, an engineer working in construction, in the head at close range.

He said the suspect had been arrested at the scene by Afghan police officers. Although the person did not specify a motive, he said that it was not related to terrorism and that the suspect had no known connections with insurgents.

American and Afghan officials have been struggling to figure out how large a factor Taliban infiltration or coercion has been in the increase in insider killings this year. Although insurgent contact has been clear in some cases, many of the attacks have seemed to come out of personal animosity or outrage, attributed to culture clash or growing Afghan anger at what they see as an unwelcome occupation by the United States and its allies.

In other violence on Monday, a coalition member was killed in an insurgent attack in eastern Afghanistan, and an Afghan Local Police commander killed five fellow officers at a checkpoint in Jowzjan Province in the north. Dur Mohammad, the commander at the checkpoint, shot and killed five officers under his command, according to Gen. Abdul Aziz Ghairat, the provincial police chief. He said the commander fled after the shooting. General Ghairat did not offer a motive but said that Mr. Mohammad had connections with the Taliban in the area.

The Afghan Local Police program, which seeks to bring armed elements — including some former insurgents — into government service, has drawn criticism because of a series of episodes in which the armed elements have switched allegiances, sometimes repeatedly.

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8 New Etiquette Rules for Using Gadgets in the Office

As the use of personal technology increases at work, it’s important to observe some new etiquette rules about how we use it. Here are eight of the most important rules to follow at work when it comes to cell phones, email, and other modern technology.

1. Using speaker phone when others can hear you. Playing back your voicemail messages on speaker phone or conducting an entire call on speaker phone is distracting to people trying to work around you. Even if you’re in an office with the door closed, speakerphone noises tend to travel. Don’t value your hands-free convenience over the ability of others to focus on their work.

2. Keeping your cell phone out so you can glance at it during meetings. Glancing down at your phone while you’re supposed to be focused on a meeting signals that you’re bored, not fully engaged, or don’t respect the time of the people you’re meeting with. If you must keep your phone out because you’re expecting an important call or text, explain that at the start of the meeting so that people don’t assume you’re just being rude.

3. Don’t overuse “reply all.” When multiple people are included on an email chain, they don’t all need to see your reply of “thanks” or “will do.” Only use “reply all” if everyone included truly needs to see your response; otherwise, stick with “reply” so your response goes only to the sender and doesn’t clutter multiple in-boxes.

4. Don’t email and phone with the same message; pick one or the other. Nothing is more annoying than starting to read an email, only to have the email’s sender pop his head in your office to repeat the same message.

5. Turn off your cell phone’s ringer if you leave it behind while you’re away from your desk. Ask any office worker, and you’ll hear stories about the annoying guy who leaves his phone behind with his ringer on full-volume while he goes to meetings … leaving his co-workers forced to hear repeated renditions of “Who Let the Dogs Out” or whatever else he’s chosen for his ringtone.

6. Placing calls from a noisy location. If you make a call, ensure you’re somewhere where you and the person you’re speaking with will be able to hear each other–and where you can give your full focus. It’s irritating to get a call from someone who immediately puts you on hold to order coffee because she just reached the front of the line.

7. Keep religious and political messages out of your email signature. Including religious or political messages is likely to offend or at least irritate some of your recipients, and introduces topics that don’t belong in a professional setting. Keep your sign-off neutral and professional.

8. Don’t use your work email as your personal email. In most offices, sending occasional personal emails from your work account is fine, but you should use your personal account for most personal things. If you treat your work email as your default personal account, chances are good that when you leave your job and your inbox and sent folder are full of personal messages, one of your co-workers will be stuck reading through all of them, as they clean out your account for your replacement. In the best case scenario, that’s merely a nuisance for a co-worker –but in the worst case scenario, it could lead to embarrassing revelations.

Alison Green writes the popular Ask a Manager blog, where she dispenses advice on career, job search, and management issues. She’s also the co-author of Managing to Change the World: The Nonprofit Manager’s Guide to Getting Results, and former chief of staff of a successful nonprofit organization, where she oversaw day-to-day staff management, hiring, firing, and employee development.

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Disney World's New Fantasyland: The Princesses Open Their Own Castles

By Stephen M. Silverman

12/24/2012 at 10:25 AM EST

From left: Ginnifer Goodwin, Thomas Staggs, Jordin Sparks and Mickey Mouse

Kent Phillips/Disney Parks/Getty

Poor Cinderella may not have a stocking to hang by the chimney with care, but she does have that choice bit of Florida real estate: her own castle smack in the middle of Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom.

This season, she isn't the only Disney princess with a stronghold to call home. Ariel from The Little Mermaid and Belle from Beauty and the Beast now boast their own splashy attractions in the recently launched New Fantasyland, which more than doubles the original 10 acres of the most popular section of the most popular park in the world's most popular resort. (Yes, expect crowds.)

"To all those who are young, and young at heart," Once Upon a Time star Ginnifer Goodwin – joined by Jordin Sparks, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts chairman Thomas Staggs and Mickey Mouse – said at the Dec. 6 dedication ceremony. The actress also said, "The castles here are far more beautiful than they are on Once Upon a Time" – with no trolls or giants to worry about.

As for the New Fantasyland landscape, which includes an Enchanted Forest, Ariel oversees a sea grotto, where her Under the Sea – Adventure of the Little Mermaid and meet-and-greet photo-taking perch can be found. For the musical adventure, guests board giant clamshells to relive the 1991 feature, with the characters brought to life through both animation and Audio-Animatronics.

Belle's tale is represented by the French-inspired Be My Guest restaurant inside the richly detailed castle of the Beast, replete with gently falling snow outside the ornate ballroom. There's also the ominous west wing (where the Beast's portrait morphs into one of the handsome prince). Less elaborate meals may be taken at the nearby Gaston's Tavern, in the village square.

Inside Belle's cottage, there's Enchanted Tales with Belle, an immersive story-telling experience all but stolen by the highly advanced Audio-Animatronic figure of Lumière, the loquacious candlestick holder.

Cinderella really doesn't go wanting, either. At night, her castle turns into the backdrop for a spectacular holiday lightshow that even manages to convert one of its turrets into an accelerating rocket.

More royal action still lies ahead in the New Year, with the Princess Fairytale Hall, where Tatiana from The Princess and the Frog and Rapunzel from Brave will be able to meet and greet their subjects. Meanwhile, currently to the west of Ariel is the brand new Storybook Circus area, home to Dumbo, which also has doubled in size with two teams of flying elephants. As it is, the waiting queues have been abandoned in favor of one large, circus-tented play area for kids.

The heart of New Fantasyland remains a construction site for the upcoming (for 2014) the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. Staggs describes it as a "family friendly" roller coaster, less intense than Thunder Mountain and featuring patented Disney technology that will allow the rider to swing in the cars, as if on a real mine train. Inside its tunnels, the train will slow so guests can observe Snow White's pals in humorous action.

Until then, those with an immediate need for speed may monorail it over to Epcot, for the newly refurbished Test Track. Here, drivers design their own Chevrolets before zooming through a Tron-like raceway at a white-knuckle speed of up to 65 m.p.h. Try getting Santa's sleigh to do that.

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street slips on "cliff" talks stalemate

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slipped on Monday, with the S&P 500 extending losses after its worst drop since mid-November in the prior session on continued worry legislators will be unable to reach a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff."

The benchmark S&P index <.spx> declined 0.9 percent on Friday, its biggest percentage drop since November 14, as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain any traction on Thursday night.

But the index remains up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. elections.

Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.

"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - cliff talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.

"They will get together is the bigger thing and in the back of everyone's mind they believe that, it's just that you can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do."

Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 38.15 points, or 0.29 percent, to 13,152.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> lost 3.89 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,426.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> fell 7.96 points, or 0.26 percent, to 3,013.05.

Trading volumes are expected to be muted, with U.S. equity markets scheduled to close at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas holiday on Tuesday.

In addition, a number of European markets will operate on a shortened session, with other markets closed entirely.

U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares were fell 3.4 percent to $24.85.

Herbalife Ltd dipped 0.7 percent to $27.05 in premarket after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic advisor. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.

Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.2 percent to $64.66 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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Syrian Resort Town Is Stronghold for Alawites

TARTUS, Syria — Loyalists who support the government of President Bashar al-Assad are flocking to the Mediterranean port of Tartus, creating an overflowing boomtown far removed from the tangled, scorched rubble that now mars most Syrian cities.

The New York Times

The port city of Tartus is sheltered by a mountain range.

There are no shellings or air raids to interrupt the daily calm. Families pack the cafes lining the town’s seaside corniche, usually abandoned in December to the salty winter winds. The real estate market is brisk. A small Russian naval base provides at least the impression that salvation, if needed, is near.

Many of the new residents are members of the Alawite minority, the same Shiite Muslim sect to which Mr. Assad belongs. The latest influx is fleeing from Damascus, people who have decided that summer villas, however chilly, are preferable to the looming battle for the capital.

“Going to Tartus is like going to a different country,” said a Syrian journalist who recently met residents here. “It feels totally unaffected and safe. The attitude is, ‘We are enjoying our lives while our army is fighting overseas.’ ”

Should Damascus fall to the opposition, Tartus could become the heart of an attempt to create a different country. Some expect Mr. Assad and the security elite will try to survive the collapse by establishing a rump Alawite state along the coast, with Tartus as their new capital.

There have been various signs of preparations.

This month, the governor of Tartus Province announced that experts were studying how to develop a tiny local airfield, now used mostly by crop-dusters, into a full-fledged civilian airport “to boost transportation, business, travel and tourism,” as the official Syrian news agency, SANA, reported. The announcement coincided with the first attacks on the airport in Damascus, forcing it to close temporarily to international traffic.

More important, security forces are continuously tightening an extensive ring of checkpoints around the potential borders of an Alawite canton. The mountain heartland of the Alawites rises steeply to the east of Tartus, separating it from much of Syria. Across the mountains, the Orontes River creates a rough line separating Alawite territory from central Syria. Rebel military commanders from adjoining Hama Province said government soldiers vigorously maintain checkpoints on routes leading up into the mountains.

“If we bomb a checkpoint, it is back in place sometimes within hours,” said Basil al-Hamwi, a rebel fighter, speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of opposition military commanders in Turkey. “Once, in Hama Province, we destroyed five in one day and they were all back the next day. This area is even more important for them than Damascus.”

Mr. Hamwi and other rebel leaders said there were about 40 government checkpoints along more than 60 miles in Homs and Hama Provinces alone. Many Alawite commanders of Mr. Assad’s army have sent their families to their home villages, so they are particularly aggressive in protecting the area, said Hassan M. al-Saloom, a rebel battalion commander. They have formed committees to guard the outskirts of their villages, he said, and often negotiate local truces.

“Nobody goes inside, and they don’t come out,” he said.

There are widespread suspicions within the opposition that the military is shipping weapons into the Alawite hinterland, or has already positioned them. “The mountains and the coast make it hard to raid,” Mr. Saloom said.

Castles left by the Crusaders dot the coastal range, a testament to its strategic value.

If Mr. Assad fled to Tartus, he could seek protection from the Russian naval base here, or flee aboard a Russian vessel. Russia announced Tuesday that it was sending a small flotilla toward Tartus, possibly to evacuate its citizens who live in Syria. But Tartus residents said that the Russian families from the naval base had already left, while the officers do not leave the base, which is little more than an enclosure near the civilian port.

An employee of The New York Times reported from Tartus, and Neil MacFarquhar from Antakya, Turkey. Hania Mourtada contributed reporting from Beirut, Lebanon, and Hala Droubi from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

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Without an ‘iTV,’ Apple’s growth could shrink to the single digits by 2015

Another analyst believes that Apple is losing its shine. Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein Research on Thursday trimmed his price target for the company, citing concerns that growth may be slowing. The analyst believes that iPhone sales will remain strong for at least the next two years, however Apple (AAPL) is expected to lose overall market share “if it does not bring out a lower-price device” in the wake of a changing industry. Sacconaghi notes that the iPad should continue to see success in a tablet market that is “a rocket…an absolute juggernaut,” with tablet PC shipments estimated to more than triple over the next five years. It is believed, however, that Apple will likely become a single digit growth company by 2015, unless it releases a new major product such as an HDTV.

[More from BGR: RIM’s biggest problem: It’s still scrambling to catch yesterday’s hottest mobile app]

“That said, it will have a pristine balance sheet, and be generating a mind-boggling $ 49 billion in free cash flow a year after paying its current dividend,” Sacconaghi wrote in a note to investors, according to Forbes. “More importantly, we believe that Apple’s innovation offers significant option value, which is not in our forecast. Three years ago, the iPad did not exist. Today it generates $ 32 billon in annual revenues, and as a standalone business would be the 11th biggest U.S. tech company. Potential ‘options’ for Apple investors include a lower-end iPhone, a television ‘solution,’ a larger iPad or converged device and monetizing advertising, e-commerce and search from its iOS platform (and credit card database) of 435 million users.”

[More from BGR: WhatsApp goes free for iPhone for a limited time]

The analyst kept his Outperform rating on shares of Apple, although he trimmed his price target from $ 800 to $ 750 and lowered his 2013 fiscal year EPS forecast to $ 49.41 per share, from $ 50.57.

This article was originally published by BGR

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Sip This! Try This Naughty Hot Chocolate for Christmas

By Alison Schwartz

12/23/2012 at 10:15 AM EST

Santa’s Naughty Hot Chocolate

Courtesy Bailey's

There's nothing all that hot about winter (mainly because these guys are wearing sweaters).

But Brooke Parkhurst and James Briscione, the chefs behind newlywed kitchen guide Just Married and Cooking, are changing that one sip at a time.

Whip up their adult spin on a cup of hot cocoa, which would only taste better if you were drinking it with one of the aforementioned shirtless guys.

Santa's Naughty Hot Chocolate

Serves 2

• 8 oz. almond milk
• 3 tbsp. cocoa powder
• 2 tsp. sugar
• 6 oz. hazelnut liqueur (recipe recommends Baileys hazelnut liqueur)
• 1 oz. chocolate vodka (recipe recommends Godiva chocolate-infused vodka)

Combine the almond milk, cocoa powder and sugar in a sauce pot. Bring the mixture to a simmer, and whisk to dissolve the cocoa. Stir in the liqueur and vodka, and then remove from the heat. Pour into two glasses or mugs, and garnish with marshmallow skewers.

Marshmallow Skewers

• 2 large marshmallows
• Pinch of ground cinnamon, cocoa powder and/or espresso powder
Cut the marshmallows crosswise into three equal-sized disks. Dust each piece with cinnamon, cocoa or espresso powder. Arrange the marshmallow pieces on a skewer, with the cut sides facing out. Garnish drinks with skewers and enjoy!

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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